Understanding Constraints to the Transformation Rate of Global Energy Infrastructure

Abstract

A massive transformation of the global energy supply system is required if deep reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions are to be achieved. This chapter focuses on physical limitations of electricity generation, specifically around the timing and scale of retiring and/or replacing coal-fired power generation capacity to meet the International Energy Agency’s (IEAs) two-degree scenario. It explores the aspects of the challenges involved with rapidly transforming global power production. The chapter describes the important elements to the transformation of the global energy supply system using the IEA forecasts as a guide. If the current boom in coal power plant construction continues more rapidly than allowed for in the IEA forecasts, then the overall scale (and rate) of coal-plant decommissioning in future years would necessarily be larger. Understanding achievable rates of energy system transitions is fundamental to developing meaningful energy and climate-change policy.