18 Journal of College Student Development
Using Emotional and Social Factors to Predict
Student Success
Mary E. Pritchard Gregory S. Wilson
College academic success and retention have
traditionally been predicted using demo-
graphic and academic variables. This study
moved beyond traditional predictors. A
survey of 218 undergraduate students from
a private Midwestern university revealed
that emotional and social factors (e.g.,
stress, frequency of alcohol consumption)
related to GPA and emotional factors (e.g.,
self-esteem, fatigue) related to attrition.
The successful completion of a college
degree in today’s society is perceived as
paramount to individual achievement.
However, a study conducted by Tinto (1987)
reported that approximately 57% of college
students would leave their first college
choice without receiving a degree. More
surprisingly, this same study revealed that
43% of college students would drop out
altogether, never completing their degree.
Although some students leave for reasons
beyond the control of the institution, most
attrition is preventable (Levitz & Noel,
1989). As a result, factors that influence a
student’s ability to successfully complete
college have received increased attention in
recent years, and a number of academic
factors have been examined in attempts to
identify those students most likely to achieve
success in college. Hence, qualitative
variables such as gender (Sanders, 1998), the
educational level of the parent (Ting &
Robinson, 1998), high school GPA (Ting &
Robinson; Tobey, 1997; Wolfe & Johnson,
Mary E. Pritchard is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at the University of Evansville. Gregory S.
Wilson is an Assistant Professor of Human Kinetics and Sports Studies at University of Evansville.
1995), high school rank (Haviland, Shaw, &
Haviland, 1984), and ACT/SAT scores
(Brooks & DuBois, 1995; Foster, 1998;
Sanders) have been associated with college
retention rates.
However, these variables clearly do not
account for all of the variation in academic
success. Szulecka, Springett, and de Pauw
(1987) have suggested that the major causes
of attrition in first-year college students are
emotional rather than academic factors.
Furthermore, Leafgran (1989) has suggested
that students who are emotionally and
socially healthy have a greater chance to
succeed in college. However, little research
has addressed the relationship of college
students’ emotional and social well-being to
retention and academic success.
Many psychological variables impact
college GPA and retention. Brooks and
DuBois (1995) found that emotional vari-
ables exerted a strong influence on how well
students adjusted to their first year of
college, which is a strong predictor of
academic success (Van Heyningen, 1997).
It has further been reported that the pos-
session of high self-confidence (Boyer &
Sedlacek, 1988; Foster, 1998), self-control
(Wolfe & Johnson, 1995), and having an
achievement-oriented personality (Foster)
are associated with a higher academic
performance. In addition, students who are
adaptive perfectionists tend to adjust better
to college and as a result, have higher rates
of retention (Rice & Mirzadeh, 2000). It has

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2003 ◆ VOL 44 NO 1 19
Predicting Student Success
been suggested that personality variables
may be useful predictors of future college
performance and attrition (Tross, Harper,
Osher, & Kneidinger, 2000).
On the other hand, emotional health may
also negatively influence academic per-
formance and retention. For example,
students who are depressed have been found
to have lower GPAs when compared to
students who are not (Fazio & Palm, 1998),
whereas students who are anxious are more
likely to drop out than their less-anxious
peers (Tobey, 1997). We examined the
impact of emotional state (e.g., depression,
fatigue) on GPA and retention.
Finally, previous research has shown a
dramatic increase in the levels of stress
experienced by college students over the past
30 years (Sax, 1997). This is important
because stress can influence academic
performance. Recent investigations have
found that GPA is predicted by stress, daily
hassles, and adjustment to college (Van
Heyningen, 1997). In addition, anxiety levels
relating to academic issues (Tobey, 1997)
and daily hassles (Brooks & DuBois, 1995)
affect adjustment to college and retention.
Because of the impact of stress on academic
success, it is important to examine how the
college experience affects students’ psycho-
logical well-being and adjustment.
Another factor that may impact student
success is student social health. Some
researchers have suggested that the most
important element to success and retention
in the first year is student involvement
(Astin, 1984). The development of inter-
personal relationships with peers is critically
important for student success (Upcraft, 1982,
1985). In fact, studies have found that both
GPA (Boyer & Sedlacek, 1988; Brooks &
DuBois, 1995) and retention (Upcraft &
Gardner, 1989) are predicted by social
support. Specifically, Tinto (1987) has stated
“incongruence with one’s student peers
proves to be a particularly important element
in voluntary departure” (p. 57). Students
with good support from friends and family
(Tobey, 1997) and favorable impressions of
other students (McGrath & Braunstein,
1997) have higher retention rates. Hence, it
is important to examine the kinds and degree
of support students receive from peers.
Student involvement in campus organi-
zations can affect their satisfaction with
college (Cooper, Healy, & Simpson, 1994),
drive to achieve, confidence in academic
ability (House, 2000), academic performance
(Hartnett, 1965), and decisions to leave
(Okun & Finch, 1998). However, there
appears to be some variation in how different
types of college organizations might affect
students’ academic success. Studies have
shown that membership in Greek organi-
zations is related to GPA (Schrager, 1986).
It has also been found that religiosity affects
adjustment to college and retention (Low &
Handal, 1995). However, religiosity itself
has not been found to significantly impact
student GPA (Zern, 1987, 1989). Finally,
although members of Honors programs or
organizations might have a more impressive
academic background than their peers, they
are no more likely to stay in school, because
they often lack the social support they need;
as a result they may have low self-esteem
and consequently drop out (Day, 1989).
Integrally tied to social support is
extraversion (Rehulkova, Blatny, & Osecka,
1995). There are conflicting results with
regard to the influence of extraversion and
introversion on GPA and retention. Some
studies have found that students who are
extraverts tend to adjust better to college life
(Searle & Ward, 1990), possess a better sense
of well-being (Demakis & McAdams, 1994),