ADTreesLogit model for customer churn prediction

Abstract

In this paper, we propose ADTreesLogit, a model that integrates the advantage of ADTrees model and the logistic regression model, to improve the predictive accuracy and interpretability of existing churn prediction models. We show that the overall predictive accuracy of ADTreesLogit model compares favorably with that of TreeNet®, a model which won the Gold Prize in the 2003 mobile customer churn prediction modeling contest (The Duke/NCR Teradata Churn Modeling Tournament). In fact, ADTreesLogit has better predictive accuracy than TreeNet® on two important observation points. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.