Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets

Abstract

Stabilizing the global climate will require large-scale global deployment of low-carbon technologies. Even in the presence of aggressive climate policies, however, the diffusion of such technologies may be limited by several institutional, behavioral, and social factors. In this paper, we review the literature on the sources of such diffusion constraints, and explore the potential implications of such constraints based on the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our analysis highlights that factors that limit technology deployment may have sizeable impacts on the feasibility and mitigation costs of achieving stringent stabilization targets. And such impacts are greatly amplified with major delays in serious climate policies. The results generally indicate that constraints on the expansions of CCS and renewables are more costly than those on nuclear or bioenergy, and jointly constraining these technologies leaves some scenarios infeasible.