Sign up & Download
Sign in

Heterogeneous length of stay of hosts' movements and spatial epidemic spread.

by Chiara Poletto, Michele Tizzoni, Vittoria Colizza
Scientific reports ()


Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to investigate the conditions for propagation, and to predict the spatial spread. Several assumptions are being considered to model hosts' movements, ranging from permanent movements to daily commuting, where the time spent at destination is either infinite or assumes a homogeneous fixed value, respectively. Prompted by empirical evidence, here we introduce a general metapopulation approach to model the disease dynamics in a spatially structured population where the mobility process is characterized by a heterogeneous length of stay. We show that large fluctuations of the length of stay, as observed in reality, can have a significant impact on the threshold conditions for the global epidemic invasion, thus altering model predictions based on simple assumptions, and displaying important public health implications.

Cite this document (BETA)

Authors on Mendeley

Readership Statistics

30 Readers on Mendeley
by Discipline
by Academic Status
37% Ph.D. Student
20% Post Doc
10% Researcher (at an Academic Institution)
by Country
7% Portugal
7% United States
7% Italy

Sign up today - FREE

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research. Learn more

  • All your research in one place
  • Add and import papers easily
  • Access it anywhere, anytime

Start using Mendeley in seconds!

Sign up & Download

Already have an account? Sign in