Indonesian Energy Scenario to 2050 : Projection of Consumption , Supply Options and Primary Energy Mix Scenarios

Abstract

This paper describes the profile of Indonesian energy consumption from 1970 until 2009. An analyses is carried out to identify Energy Indicators i.e. consumption per capita, energy intensity, the growth and elasticity of growth of primary energy consumption in total and also for the final energy in total and by sector as well as for the electricity. It also outlines the energy options and the fossil energy and renewable energy potential. The main part of this paper is the projection of energy consumption and the energy mix scenario from 2010 to 2050. The projection made is a snapshot by using a linear model. The main parameter for the projection is the population and GDP growth.The projection of energy consumption was first made for electricity and non electricity final energy consumption. The indicators of the energy use in the past and of the selected countries were used for making the consumption projection of electricity and the final energy by sectors i.e. Industry, Transportation, Household, and Services. Having obtained the final energy consumption, the primary energy consumption is then projected. The energy mix is set by prioritizing the use of new and renewable energy and domestic available supply and by minimizing the use of oil.