Model estimates of global and regional atmospheric methane emissions of wetland ecosystems

Abstract

Estimates of the changes of atmospheric methane emissions from wetland ecosystems for different regions and the Earth as a whole are performed. The new version of the model of methane emissions from soil in a global climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics is used. Numerical experiments in accordance with the conditions of WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) have been performed. The model is capable of realistically reproducing global and regional characteristics of methane emissions. The general trend of increases in methane flows from wetland ecosystems into the atmosphere due to global warming is noted. According to the results of calculations, the global natural methane emissions from wetlands have increased in the 20th century by 9 MtCH4/year. The sensitivity of global methane emissions to changes in global near-surface temperature over the land was estimated to be equal to 16 MtCH4/year/K (approximately 10%/K). With continuing warming, we can expect a significant increase in methane emissions, primarily from the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.