The role of scenarios in strategic foresight

Abstract

This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The author describes two roles of scenarios in supporting these processes - scenarios as mental models, and through providing a well-understood methodology that permits exploration of the future. Three key case studies from different fields, such as financial services and pharmaceuticals, enhance the description of the methods. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.