A Solution to the Problem of Generalisation in Educational Research: Fuzzy prediction

Abstract

This paper substantiates a way of encapsulating the claims to educational knowledge of empirical research and communicating them simply to would-be users by drawing on a concept of fuzzy logic. A fuzzy prediction replaces the certainty of scientific generalisation ('x in y circumstances results in z') by the uncertainty, or fuzziness, of statements that contain qualifiers ('x in y circumstances may result in z'). The paper also tentatively suggests that the likelihood of 'z' occurring can be indicated by a best-estimate-of-trustworthiness which, in the absence of empirical evidence, is based on the researchers' professional judgement (arising from the literature and experience). Alone, a fuzzy prediction is no more than the researcher's equivalent of the politician's sound-bite, and as such may have little credence, but when supported by a research account which makes clear the context of the statement and the evidence justifying it, the fuzzy prediction provides a powerful and user-friendly summary which can serve as a guide to professional action. Fuzzy prediction invites replication and this, by leading either to support of the statement or its amendment, contributes to the edifice of educational theory.