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Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century

by Y. Hu, Y. Xia, Q. Fu
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ()
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Abstract

Recent simulations predicted that the stratospheric ozone layer will likely return to pre-1980 levels in the mid-dle of the 21st century, as a result of the decline of ozone depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Since the ozone layer is an important component in determining stratospheric and tropospheric-surface energy balance, the recovery of stratospheric ozone may have significant impact on tropospheric-surface climate. Here, using multi-model results from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4) models and coupled chemistry-climate models, we show that as ozone recovery is considered, the troposphere is warmed more than that without considering ozone recovery, suggesting an en-hancement of tropospheric warming due to ozone recovery. It is found that the enhanced tropospheric warming is mostly significant in the upper troposphere, with a global and an-nual mean magnitude of ∼0.41 K for 2001–2050. We also find that relatively large enhanced warming occurs in the ex-tratropics and polar regions in summer and autumn in both hemispheres, while the enhanced warming is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. En-hanced warming is also found at the surface. The global and annual mean enhancement of surface warming is about 0.16 K for 2001–2050, with maximum enhancement in the winter Arctic.

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