Analysis of Wildfire Fault Based on F-FTA Method

Abstract

It is particularly necessary to prevent the occurrence of wildfires, which caused a series of economic losses and ecological disasters. In this paper, an evaluation model is established by the combination of Triangular Fuzzy Theory and FTA (F-FTA). Considering the human and environmental errors in the wildfire fault, the triangular fuzzy probability, error limits and importance degree of the events are adopted, and the causes of probability fluctuation and proper measures are raised. In addition, this model is applied in Zhaotong, Yunnan to analysis the potential risk of wildfires. The result shows that the triangular fuzzy probability of local wildfire fault is (0.0024, 0.021, 0.071), and the probability of wildfire occurrence fluctuates greatly. Especially, Sacrificial fire (X18 ), Burning Charcoal (X8 ), Burning woodland (X9 ), Smoking in the wild (X16 ), Burning pasture (X10 ), Children playing with fire (X20 ) exist highly risk. Therefore, fire-fighting equipment should be arranged flexibly, and individualized measures should be formulated in response to the accidental occurrence of wildfires to provide guidance for the prevention and control of wildfires faults.