A Comparison of AI Weather Prediction and Numerical Weather Prediction Models for 1–7-Day Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract

Pure artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction (AIWP) models have made waves within the scientific community and the media, claiming superior performance to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these models often lack impactful output variables such as precipitation. One exception is Google DeepMind’s GraphCast model, which became the first mainstream AIWP model to predict precipitation, but performed only limited verification. We present an analysis of the ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)-initialized (GRAPIFS) and the NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS)-initialized (GRAPGFS) GraphCast precipitation forecasts over the contiguous United States and compare to results from the GFS and IFS models using 1) grid-based, 2) neighborhood, and 3) objectoriented metrics verified against the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) and the NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) stage IV precipitation analysis datasets. We affirmed that GRAPGFS and GRAPIFS perform better than the GFS and IFS in terms of root-mean-square error and stable equitable errors in probability space, but the GFS and IFS precipitation distributions more closely align with the ERA5 and stage IV distributions. Equitable threat score also generally favored GraphCast, particularly for lower accumulation thresholds. Fractions skill score for increasing neighborhood sizes shows greater gains for the GFS and IFS than GraphCast, suggesting the NWP models may have a better handle on intensity but struggle with the location. Object-based verification for GraphCast found positive area biases at low accumulation thresholds and large negative biases at high accumulation thresholds. GRAPGFS saw similar performance gains to GRAPIFS when compared to their NWP counterparts, but initializing with the less familiar GFS conditions appeared to lead to an increase in light precipitation.