The Influence Change of Private Car Ownership on Patterns of Mode Choice in Baghdad city

Abstract

The growth rate of vehicle ownership in Baghdad has increased since 2003. For the analysis of adverse effects of car ownership on transport mode choice, the comparison between the patterns of mode choices in the past with current situation was studied. The transport mode choice was calibrated using a Logit model; it combines different characteristics of the alternatives and individual socioeconomic variables in a meaningful way to calculate a utility value. The model requires data of zones, choice data of travelling mode and the selected mode attributes. Trans Cad was used to calibrate the utility functions, MNL analysis in Trans Cad is used to develop the model. The travelling modes used in the study area are private mode (car) and public mode (bus). The level of service variables (In-vehicle travel time, cost) and socioeconomic variables (auto ownership, income) are used. After calibration of the split model, the process of validation is achieved by comparing field measured modal split of traffic volumes with estimated split results of the model. The results show that a higher share of public transport in the past, while in 2014, it appears that the share of auto is higher. Through these results, it finds that public transport must be given the utmost importance in order to provide a sustainable environment in the region.