Mapping national and local political coalitions in Indonesia: multistage social network analysis oversized coalition Governor, Regent, and Mayor Elections 2024

Abstract

Using multistage social network analysis, this study aims to analyze the dynamics of political coalition formation in the 2024 Governor, Regent, and Mayor Elections in Indonesia. First, the study mapped the network of political coalitions in 37 provinces for governor elections. Second, the researchers narrowed the scope to the Regent and Mayor Elections in Central Java and East Java Provinces. This study uses degree centrality, 2local, 2Step, Average Reciprocal Distance (ARD), closeness, eigenvector, betweenness, 2StepBet, and k-Coreness to understand the role and position of political parties in the coalition network. The results of the study show that the Gerindra Party is the main actor in the formation of coalitions in national gubernatorial elections, as well as in regents and mayors in Central Java and East Java. The researcher found that Partai Golkar, Partai Amanat nasional (PAN), Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS), and Partai Demokrat also played significant roles as main links in the coalition network at all election levels. Partai Demokrasi Indonesia perjuangan (PDIP), the party that won the 2024 legislative election, formed a smaller coalition or carried its own candidates. This research also reveals that political coalitions at the local level are more fluid and pragmatic because ideological differences are not obstacles. Small parties, such as PSI, Partai Indonesia Raya (Perindo), and Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP), have the ability to form coalitions because they have higher indicator values than PDIP. The researchers concluded that pragmatism influenced coalition politics in Indonesia more than ideology.