The causality of deviation from the optimal parameters of a regional demographic system

Abstract

This study is based on the identification of causal relationships that determine the current trends in the demographic system of the regions of the Russian Federation. The achievement of optimal parameters of the demographic system is a factor in the implementation of the principle of sustainable development of territories. Demographic behavior is explained from the perspective of an institutional approach and is defined as a reaction and adaptation to changes in the institutional environment. From the standpoint of determinism, the response of the demographic system can be defined as a consequence and causality as the influence of the institutional environment. An attempt to formalize conclusions about the influence of the institutional environment on the demographic parameters of the territory and the application of mathematical research methods have allowed the authors to conclude that the economic well-being of the population was the dominant factor in the increase of the birth rate.