Flooding in central Chile: Implications of tides and sea level increase in the 21st century

Abstract

Coastal floods have become a serious problem on a global scale, increasing in frequency or magnitude due to natural conditions, and exacerbated by socioeconomic factors. This investigation analyzes the role of tides and average sea levels on the development and intensity of flooding in the lower section of the Andalién River, located toward the southern extreme of the coast of central Chile and northeast of Concepción, the country's second most populous city. Numerical simulation (1D) was used in five modeled scenarios to determine potential flooding areas, demonstrating the influence of tides in flooding processes as far away as 7.3 km from the river mouth, which is reinforced by the fact that 57% of flooding events occur during syzygies. Further, a climate change-induced sea level rise of 60 cm from current levels by the end of the 21st century would produce a 4% increase in flood-prone areas, with 17% of flooding affecting the current built-up area and 83% of floodplains and salt marshes. Efforts must be made to protect or conserve these latter areas in order to increase natural resilience, given the high costs of implementing structural measures to protect future residential areas.