Rating curve development and uncertainty analysis in mountainous watersheds for informed hydrology and resource management

Abstract

Accurate measurement of continuous stream discharge poses both excitement and challenges for hydrologists and water resource planners, particularly in mountainous watersheds. This study centers on the development of rating curves utilizing the power law at three headwaters of the lesser Himalayas—Aglar, Paligaad, and Balganga—through the installation of water level recorders for stage measurement and salt dilution for discharge measurement from 2014 to 2016. The stream stage–discharge relationship, crucially known as the rating curve, is susceptible to numerous factors in mountainous watersheds that are often challenging to comprehend or quantify. Despite significant errors introduced during the rating curve development, such as stemming from observations, modeling, and parameterization, they are frequently overlooked. In this study, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty, we employ the maximum-likelihood method to assess uncertainty in the developed rating curve. Our findings reveal substantial inconsistency in the stage–discharge relationship, particularly during high flows. A novel contribution of this study is introducing a weighing factor concept that correlates uncertainty with the morphological parameters of the watershed. The higher value of the weighting factor in Paligaad (0.37) as compared to Balganga (0.35) and less in the case of Aglar (0.27) will have more uncertainty. The authors contend that precise rating curves and comprehensive uncertainty analyses can mitigate construction costs, foster robust decision-making, and enhance the perceived credibility of decisions in hydrology and water resource management.