Improved detection of decreased glucose handling capacities via continuous glucose monitoring-derived indices

Abstract

Background: Efficiently assessing glucose handling capacity is a critical public health challenge. This study assessed the utility of relatively easy-to-measure continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-derived indices in estimating glucose handling capacities calculated from resource-intensive clamp tests. Methods: We conducted a prospective study of 64 individuals without prior diabetes diagnosis. The study performed CGM, oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT), and hyperglycemic and hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp tests. We validated CGM-derived indices characteristics using an independent dataset from another country and mathematical models with simulated data. Results: A CGM-derived index reflecting the autocorrelation function of glucose levels (AC_Var) is significantly correlated with clamp-derived disposition index (DI), a well-established measure of glucose handling capacity and predictor of diabetes onset. Multivariate and machine learning models indicate AC_Var’s contribution to predicting clamp-derived DI independent from other CGM-derived indices. The model using CGM-measured glucose standard deviation and AC_Var outperforms models using commonly used diabetes diagnostic indices, such as fasting blood glucose, HbA1c, and OGTT measures, in predicting clamp-derived DI. Mathematical simulations also demonstrate the association of AC_Var with DI. Conclusions: CGM-derived indices, including AC_Var, serve as valuable tools for predicting glucose handling capacities in populations without prior diabetes diagnosis. We develop a web application that calculates these CGM-derived indices (https://cgm-ac-mean-std.streamlit.app/).