MaxEnt-based modeling of suitable habitat for rehabilitation of Podocarpus forest at landscape-scale

Abstract

Modeling the current distribution and predicting suitable habitats of threatened species support proper planning processes for conservation and restoration. The aim of this study was thus to model the actual distribution and predict environmentally suitable habitats for Podocarpus falcatus, a locally threatened native tree species in Ethiopia. To realize this objective, species’ presence samples, BIOCLIMATIC, and topographic predictors were combined to run a MaxEnt model. Finally, a model-generated habitat suitability map was produced with AUC accuracy of 0.783. Among the variables used for modeling, elevation range was found to be a key predictor of Podocarpus distribution, followed by precipitation of the driest quarter and isothermality. An extensive area (> 48%) of the studied landscape has been predicted to be environmentally suitable for the target species. However, only a small portion open-land area is practically available for rehabilitation since the area has been intensively cultivated to support the densely inhabited population. Therefore, potential areas for a small-scale plantation of Podocarpus trees remain to be pocket sites in religious places and around farmers’ homesteads. So far, many farmers in this area have demonstrated a successful experience of growing this degraded native tree species. Thus, encouraging privately owned small-scale plantations could enhance rehabilitation and more sustainable conservation of the locally threatened native tree species.