Measuring national economic resilience through industrial portfolios

Abstract

Even though the importance of economic resilience has increased as economic shocks have become more frequent in the world, there is still a knowledge gap on how to measure it. In search for effective ways to measure national resilience, this article identifies and mathematically proves the existence of direct correlation between resilience and competitiveness through time-specific global correlation rate. This research proposes an economic performance evaluation method that measures the competitiveness of countries facing economic shocks and recovering from them. A quantified method for identification of global economic shocks through industrial portfolio is proposed as well. The holistic approach internalises most externalities and a nation’s resilience is pared down to its ability to compete in the international trade, linking the main determinants of resilience to the basics of human behaviour. The proposed methodology can be used effectively for national and global economic performance estimations. It also opens a range of new possibilities for economic resilience studies.