Music, Expectation, and Information Theory

Abstract

What makes a musical work successful? In Darwinian terms, music is successful if listeners attend to it, repeatedly, for then it can live on. However, attention is fleeting: successful music holds listeners’ interest by manipulating their expectations using deception and confirmation. The ratio of the rate at which listeners follow music to the rate at which music unfolds is a predictor for musical success. This paper informally presents a theory of musical interest, based on some ideas from music theory, cognitive psychology, and information theory.