Global food security: assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies

Abstract

Purpose: A foresight process was put in place to examine potential developments that can affect the world food situation in 2030 to identify the most useful areas for European Union (EU) policy intervention. Design/methodology/approach: Four interactive workshops involving over 100 experts were organised. The structure of the foresight was designed based on the following five objectives: envision the future of food systems, agree on the most crucial drivers of change affecting food security, reach a consensus on a likely vision for 2030, challenge this vision and analyse current policies and policy needs in terms of responsiveness and resilience to food security future challenges. Findings: The study contains four key messages accompanied by several related policy recommendations for the immediate and medium term to enable the EU to contribute to achieving food security by 2030. These refer to the transformation of agriculture production systems, the enabling environment, trends in production and consumption and demand-driven food systems as important determinants of sustainable food security. The study recommends a stronger coherence and coordination between different EU policies impacting food security. The development of urban areas is an overlooked challenge for food security as well as the contribution of trade and demand-side dynamics. Originality/value: This is one of the very few attempts to look at food security with a system approach. A new paradigm shift is proposed: securing “regular” access to adequate food for the majority of the 8-9 billion people who will live on earth in the period 2030-2050, while addressing the food insecurity of a fraction of that total, is how a future European food security policy should be approached.