Climate Change Impact on Peruvian Biomes

Abstract

The biodiversity present in Peru will be affected by climatic and anthropogenic changes; therefore, understanding these changes will help generate biodiversity conservation policies. This study analyzes the potential distributions of biomes (B) in Peru under the effects of climate change. The evaluation was carried out using the random forest (RF) method, six bioclimatic variables, and digital topography for the classification of current B in Peru. Subsequently, the calibrated RF model was assimilated to three downscaled regional climate models to project future B distributions for the 2035–2065 horizon. We evaluated possible changes in extension and elevation as well as most susceptible B. Our projections show that future scenarios agreed that 82% of current B coverage will remain stable. Approximately 6% of the study area will change its current conditions to conditions of higher humidity; 4.5% will maintain a stable physiognomy, but with an increase in humidity; and finally, 6% will experience a decrease in humidity but maintain its appearance. Additionally, glaciers and swamps are indicated as the most vulnerable B, with probable losses greater than 50% of their current area. These results demonstrate the need to generate public policies for the adaptation and mitigation of climate effects on B at a national scale.