Regime shift in the destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Abstract

The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) and their response to climate change is an issue of broad concern. Based on the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) proposed by Emanuel in 2005, the destructiveness of TCs in the typhoon season (July-October) during the period 1979-2016 over the western North Pacific is investigated. Results show that a regime shift in the destructive potential of TCs took place around 1998. The destructive potential of TCs has a considerable increasing trend from 1998 to 2016 (the P2 period), mainly contributed by the average intensity of TCs (51.20% of PDI change). We find that the PDI of TCs is mainly regulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle in whole study period, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern shows significant enhancement in P2, which acts as a more important constraint on the typhoon season PDI over the western North Pacific.