Technical Note: Temporal disaggregation of spatial rainfall fields with generative adversarial networks

Abstract

Creating spatially coherent rainfall patterns with high temporal resolution from data with lower temporal resolution is necessary in many geoscientific applications. From a statistical perspective, this presents a high-dimensional, highly underdetermined problem. Recent advances in machine learning provide methods for learning such probability distributions. We test the usage of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for estimating the full probability distribution of spatial rainfall patterns with high temporal resolution, conditioned on a field of lower temporal resolution. The GAN is trained on rainfall radar data with hourly resolution. Given a new field of daily precipitation sums, it can sample scenarios of spatiotemporal patterns with sub-daily resolution. While the generated patterns do not perfectly reproduce the statistics of observations, they are visually hardly distinguishable from real patterns. Limitations that we found are that providing additional input (such as geographical information) to the GAN surprisingly leads to worse results, showing that it is not trivial to increase the amount of used input information. Additionally, while in principle the GAN should learn the probability distribution in itself, we still needed expert judgment to determine at which point the training should stop, because longer training leads to worse results.