Viability of carbon offset-generating afforestation projects in boreal Ontario

Abstract

Carbon offsets generated under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) should be included in the management options considered by resource managers. This paper investigates investments in afforestation for the generation of KP-compliant carbon offsets in the Timmins Management Unit, concentrating on the availability of quality carbon budget models, domestic carbon market concerns and the presence of an enabling environment. A modelling exercise is undertaken using GORCAM-WC1, with ownership, leading species, investment horizon, site productivity and carbon price as variables.Under current institutional frameworks, afforestation projects with the purpose of generating carbon offsets in the TMU are not viable investments for the first commitment period, though such projects will be profitable under certain conditions if constraints are removed and investment is long term.