Rebel governance: military boon or military bust? (Isard Award Article)

Abstract

What is the relationship between rebel governance and rebel military strength? Most existing research assumes that rebel governance enhances the military strength of the rebel group. I test this assumption with an original dataset of rebel governance services. The quantitative evidence presents a more complicated picture that belies a straightforward link between the two: governance appears to have either no relationship with rebel strength and sometimes even a negative and statistically significant relationship with rebel military capacity. To explain this surprising result, I generate a set of empirically grounded mechanisms using case vignettes that incorporate primary and secondary data. As a whole, the paper calls for greater theorizing and testing of the consequences of rebel governance, as well as the strategic motivations for its implementation.