Drivers of Green Transition Performance Differences in China’s Resource-Based Cities: A Carbon Reduction–Pollution Control–Greening–Growth Framework

Abstract

Understanding the multidimensional sources and key drivers of differences in green transition performance (GTP) among resource-based cities is vital for accomplishing national sustainable development objectives and facilitating regional coordination. This study proposes a “Carbon Reduction–Pollution Control–Greening–Growth” evaluation framework and utilizes the entropy method to assess the GTP of China’s resource-based cities from 2013 to 2022. The Dagum Gini coefficient and variance decomposition methods are employed to investigate the GTP differences, and the Optimal Parameters-Based Geographical Detector and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model are applied to identify the driving factors. The results indicate the following trends: (1) GTP exhibits a fluctuating upward trend, accompanied by pronounced regional imbalances. A pattern of “club convergence” is observed, with cities showing a tendency to shift positively toward adjacent types. (2) Spatial differences in GTP have widened over time, with transvariation density emerging as the dominant contributor. (3) Greening differences represent the primary structural source, with an average annual contribution exceeding 60%. (4) The impact of digital economy, the level of financial development, the degree of openness, industrial structure, and urbanization level on GTP differences declines sequentially. These factors exhibit notable spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and their interactions display nonlinear enhancement effects.