Resilient strategies to mitigate the volatility of copper and aluminium critical mineral demand for net-zero electricity network production

Abstract

This study aims to mitigate the volatility of critical copper and aluminium mineral demand for electricity network production during the transition to a net-zero economy. It explores strategies to address the increasing demand driven by renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle proliferation while overcoming challenges related to mineral availability and price instability. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was analyzed over the 2022–2050 period, focusing on three scenarios: base-case (BCS), wider use of aluminium in underground cables (WAC), and wider direct current technological development (WDC). The study evaluates trends and forecasts to determine demand implications for copper and aluminium. The BCS scenario revealed at least a twofold increase in global aluminium demand compared to copper. Under the WAC scenario, global aluminium demand decreased by 1.84–2.71% between 2025 and 2035 and by 3.62–5.49% between 2040 and 2050. Copper demand also declined significantly under the WAC and WDC scenarios, highlighting potential mitigation strategies for mineral volatility. While comprehensive, this study relies on IEA projections and specific scenarios, which may not account for unforeseen technological advancements or market dynamics. Future research could expand on these findings by integrating real-time data and additional global contexts. The study underscores the importance of recycling, circular economy practices, advanced forecasting, and demand planning methodologies. This research provides a novel framework for understanding and addressing critical mineral demand, sustainable practices, and resilient supply chain strategies in the context of a net-zero economy.