Unemployment Rate in ECCAS Countries: Structural Changes and Stochastic Convergence

Abstract

This paper aims, on the one hand, to specify the dates of potential breaks (or shocks) in the unemployment rate times series of ECCAS countries while verifying whether these shocks, notably accession to CEMAC, could have generated permanent effects and, on the other hand, to assess the hypothesis of stochastic divergence of the unemployment rate. To this end, an econometric analysis is carried out based on unemployment rate time series at quarterly frequency (1991-2018). The results suggest that overall, there is no presence of the hysteresis effect and that CEMAC accession had a significant transitory effect only in Equatorial Guinea. Overall, effective unemployment rates converge towards the average level in the subregion during the sample period