Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey

Abstract

This paper quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines an economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model to analyse the probable effects of the B1 scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change which is comparable to representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. Part of agriculture’s decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey’s food trade balance.