A Predictive Model on the Spread of HIV in Cebu City

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which can be spread by people’s lifestyle, causes Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Social lifestyles such as multiple sexual partnerships, commitment, protected sex practices, and health checkups are lifestyle factors that can impact on the rate at which entry into any of the epidemiologic compartments S, I or D (death) slows or accelerates. Functional relationships between these social parameters and the disease parameters determined the model developed in this study and used predictive agent-based model to simulate the level of spread of HIV cases in Cebu with base data of the risky lifestyle of BPO agents in the region that could make them vulnerable to infections. Simulation results revealed that there is a rise on the incidence of HIV infections every year, which could become an epidemic in the future if no immediate intervention will be done. This high incidence of HIV cases in Cebu as evidenced by simulation results reflect the lack of awareness, prompt action, and policy in Cebu City with regards to mitigating the spread of the virus. Sans any intervention, the incidence of HIV infection can accelerate further in the future.