全球变暖背景下中亚干旱区降水变化特征及其空间差异

Abstract

This study analyzed the temporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia (ACA) and their regional differences during 1930-2009 using monthly gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Our results showed that the annual precipitation in this westerly circulation dominated arid region is generally increasing during the past 80 years, with an apparent increasing trend (0.7 mm/10 a) in winter. The precipitation variations in ACA also differ regionally, which can be divided into five distinct subregions (I West Kazakhstan region, II East Kazakhstan region, III Central Asia Plains region, IV Kyrgyzstan region, and V Iran Plateau region). The annual precipitation falls fairly even on all seasons in the two northern subregions (regions I and II, approximately north of 45°N), whereas the annual precipitation is falling mainly on winter and spring (accounting for up to 80% of the annual total precipitation) in the three southern subregions. The annual precipitation is increasing on all subregions except the southwestern ACA (subregion V) during the past 80 years. A significant increase in precipitation appeared in subregions I and III. The long-term trends in annual precipitation in all subregions are determined mainly by trends in winter precipitation. Additionally, the precipitation in ACA has significant interannual variations. The 2-3-year cycle is identified in all subregions, while the 5-6-year cycle is also found in the three southern subregions. Besides the inter-annual variations, there were 3-4 episodic precipitation variations in all subregions, with the latest episodic change that started in the mid to late 1970s. The precipitations in most of the study regions are fast increasing since the late 1970s. Overall, the responses of ACA precipitation to global warming are complicated. The variations of westerly circulation are likely the major factors that influence the precipitation variations in the study region. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.