Exploring energy scenarios and driving forces of CO2 emissions of regions: The case of a southern region of Spain through LEAP analysis

Abstract

Climate change demands urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transition towards sustainable energy systems. Andalusia, a region with high renewable potential but strong fossil fuel dependence, presents an opportunity to assess regional energy transitions with broader implications for similar contexts. This study employs the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model Andalusia's energy metabolism and evaluate different energy transition scenarios for 2030 and 2050, focusing on GHG emissions, energy demand, and renewable energy integration. Three scenarios are analysed: (1) a baseline scenario, reflecting current policies; (2) an efficiency scenario, incorporating ambitious energy-saving measures; and (3) a long-term scenario, targeting climate neutrality. Results show that renewable energy penetration reaches 33.5% by 2030, failing to meet the 42% target, and reductions in primary energy demand and emissions are insufficient to comply with 2050 climate commitments. While energy efficiency and renewables contribute to emission reductions, additional measures such as greater electrification, faster renewable deployment, and enhanced energy storage are required. These findings highlight the need for stronger policy actions to accelerate decarbonisation, ensuring alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a replicable framework for regional energy planning, offering insights to policymakers to bridge the gap between current trajectories and climate objectives through targeted strategies and infrastructure investments.