Global Trends and Forecast of the Burden of Adverse Effects of Medical Treatment: Epidemiological Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Aim To quantify and update the years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to the adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) between 1990 and 2017. Subject and methods We analyzed the latest dataset from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. We described the burden of AEMT based on the number of DALY. We additionally evaluated the global age and sex-specific DALY and compared the age-standardized rates of DALY across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions from 1990 to 2017. Results Worldwide, the total DALYs due to AEMT were 84.93 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 62.52 to 102.21] in 1990 and 62.79 (52.09 to 75.45) in 2017 per 100,000 population. The global percentage of change in DALY showed a negative trend of -26.06 % (-41.52 to -10.59) across all WHO regions between 1990 and 2017. The YLD has increased during the period from 1997 to 2017 by 29.47% (17.87 to 41.06). In 2017, men were affected more than women with a DALY of 66.78 in comparison to 58.91 DALY in women. DALY rates per 100,000 were highest across all the WHO regions in the first years of life. The predicted DALY rates were 59.92 (57.52 to 62.32) in the year 2020, 50.36 (32.03 to 68.70) in 2030, and 40.8 (-1.33 to 82.93) in 2040. Conclusion Using the GBD 2017 study data, we found a decrease in the DALY rate due to AEMT between 1990 and 2017 with a varying range of DALY between different WHO regions. DALY also differed by age and sex. The forecasting analyses showed a decrease in DALY due to AEMTs with a significant drop in the European region when compared to the African and American regions. However, the increasing trend for YLD signifies an increasing burden of people living with poor health due to AEMT. Our study proposes to identify disability due to AEMT as a significant public health crisis and calls for policymakers to create a robust revised policy.