Ideology trumps self-interest: continued support for a political leader despite disappointing tax returns

Abstract

People presumably strive to maximize their own benefit whenever possible, so it is puzzling when they vote for leaders who may not have their best interest at heart. We tested whether support for a political leader is diminished when supporters learn they are financially disadvantaged by the leader’s policies. In a two-stage experiment (Time 1 n = 601, Time 2 n = 343) with pre-registered hypotheses, Trump voters predicted their expected tax refund (or payment), and then reported their tax outcome immediately after the filing deadline. Afterwards, we confronted half of the participants with the discrepancy between their actual and predicted tax outcome. Having lower-than-expected tax outcomes was not associated with reduced support for Trump either on its own, or in combination with being reminded of this outcome. However, it led participants who were dissatisfied with their tax outcome to downgrade the importance of lowering taxes, possibly in an effort to reduce dissonance and justify continued support for Trump. Subjective tax outcome satisfaction did predict Trump support, but was dwarfed in magnitude by other variables such as system justification and political orientation. Thus, people may find ways to rationalize information that goes against their self-interest into their partisan world-view.