Post-Earthquake Traffic Simulation Considering Road Traversability

Abstract

Post-earthquake road traversability is a critical factor that affects traffic conditions. Therefore, a post-earthquake traffic simulation method considering road traversability was proposed in this study. First, the impact ranges of the earthquake-induced building collapse and the post-earthquake fire spread of buildings were analyzed, and road traversability was determined accordingly. Subsequently, the post-earthquake traffic flow was predicted based on building characteristics, and micro-level vehicle behaviors were simulated considering post-earthquake road traversability to determine the traffic conditions. In addition, the simulation model was validated using actual data. Finally, a segment of the Tongzhou road network in Beijing was selected as a case study to analyze post-earthquake road traversability and simulate traffic conditions on critical road sections. The proposed method can provide post-earthquake traffic conditions, which benefits the decision-making of post-earthquake evacuation and rescue.