A STUDY ON THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE YUNNAN TEA INDUSTRY UNDER THE PRESSURE OF CHINA’S TEA INVENTORY

Abstract

This study systematically examines the dynamics of tea production, consumption, and inventory in China from 2018 to 2023, with a particular focus on Yunnan Province, to assess the extent of market saturation and its implications for industry sustainability. Based on comprehensive national and international datasets, the analysis reveals a substantial expansion in tea garden area, increasing by 447.37 thousand hectares to reaching 3433.17 thousand hectares in 2023, contributing over 94% to the global net increase. During the same period, national tea production grew by 924.7 thousand tons, of with Yunnan contributed 133.7 thousand tons. However, domestic consumption rose by only 494 thousand tons, resulting in a structural surplus. Inventory data indicate that primary tea stock reached 507 thousand tons and finished tea stock surged by 289.31% to 3.196 million tons. Despite the growth in niche categories such as yellow tea and the expansion of the tea beverage sector, overreliance on traditional green and black teas—comprising more than 72% of output—exacerbates the oversupply. Exports remain limited, with China accounting for only 21.16% of global tea exports and Yunnan contributing a marginal 0.24%. The observed decoupling of production and demand signals increasing market saturation. To ensure long-term sustainability, the industry must adopt targeted strategies including demand-driven production planning, structural optimization of tea types, and diversification of export markets.