Methode zur Einflussanalyse in der Szenario-Technik auf Basis gerichteter Graphen

Abstract

In an environment of increasing market dynamics and shortening product lifecycles, strategic foresight with scenario-technique is a way for the anticipation of future market and technological developments to identify innovations. Within scenario-technique, influence analysis has a broad impact on both efforts to build scenarios and quality of such scenarios. To reduce the complexity of scenario-building, a set of key influence factors is selected. In this paper, a novel approach based on a modified page-rank algorithm for the selection of key influence factors is presented. By the holistic approach, direct and indirect influences on factors are considered, in relation to their adjacent nodes on the representing graph. Furthermore, the robustness of the selection is improved.