Prognostic factors to predict the survival in patients with advanced gastric cancer who receive later-line nivolumab monotherapy—The Asahikawa Gastric Cancer Cohort Study (AGCC)

Abstract

Background: Chemotherapy for advanced gastric cancer is recommended in the guidelines; however, later-line treatment remains controversial. Since immune checkpoint inhibitors have been used for the treatment of various malignancies, trials have been performed for gastric cancer. A phase 3 trial indicated the survival benefit of nivolumab monotherapy for gastric cancer patients treated with prior chemotherapy regimens. Patients and methods: A regional cohort study was undertaken to determine the real-world data of nivolumab treatment for patients with advanced or recurrent gastric cancer. The patients were enrolled for 2 years from October 2017 to October 2019 and were prospectively followed for 1 year to examine the overall survival (OS). The patient characteristics were analyzed in a multivariate analysis and a nomogram to predict the probability of survival was generated. Results: In total, 70 patients who received nivolumab as ≥third-line chemotherapy were included in the Asahikawa Gastric Cancer Cohort. The median OS was 7.5 (95% CI, 4.8–10.2) months and the response rate was 18.6%. Diffuse type classification, bone metastasis, high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and high CRP were associated with poor OS/prognosis in the multivariate analysis. A nomogram was developed based on these clinical parameters and the concordance index was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68–0.91). The responders were aged and were frequently diagnosed with intestinal type gastric cancer, including patients with a HER2-positive status (27.3%) or microsatellite instability-high (27.3%) status. Conclusions: The regional cohort study of nivolumab monotherapy for gastric cancer patients revealed prognostic factors and a nomogram was developed that could predict the probability of survival.