Imbalanced land surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system

Abstract

There has been a significant increase in the skill and resolution of numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) in recent decades, extending the time scales of useful weather predictions. The land surface models (LSMs) of NWPs are often employed in hydrological applications, which raises the question of how hydrologically representative LSMs really are. In this paper, precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and runoff (R) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global models were evaluated against observational products. The forecasts differ substantially from observed data for key hydrological variables. In addition, imbalanced surface water budgets, mostly caused by data assimilation, were found on both global (P-E) and basin scales (P-E-R), with the latter being more important. Modeled surface fluxes should be used with care in hydrological applications, and further improvement in LSMs in terms of process descriptions, resolution, and estimation of uncertainties is needed to accurately describe the land surface water budgets.