Climate change impact on coffee and the pollinator bee suitable area interaction in Raya Azebo, Ethiopia

Abstract

Modeling suitable habitat of plants and pollinators helps to find plant and pollinator interactions. Flowereng plants are dependent on insect pollinators, pollintors are also dependent on flowering plants. However, there is mismatch of plant and pollinator suitable area due to deficiency of plentiful research. Therefore, this study investigates the suitable area of coffee, bee, and their interaction. This was conducted using bee and coffee presence, altitude, and climate variables. This study was conducted using spatial regression and ecological niche model. In addition, future common suitable areas were detected in whole Ethiopia using climate analogue in ensemble general circulation models (GCMs) in order to adapt the impact of climate change. Thus, the result showed that there is 666  km2 suitable area for coffee production. Precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter are the most contributors for coffee distribution. Similarly, a suitable area for bee is 835 km2. Precipitation of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the best contributors for bee distribution. Their common suitable area in relation to the enviromental variables is 598 km2. Their interaction is explained by 52.93%. The model shows that there might be future common suitable area in Ethiopia. Therefore, the study remarks that coffee and bee should be cultivated in their common suitable area in order to ensure their pollination, ecological and economic roles under changing climate.