A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change

Abstract

Context: This review paper provides an overview of approaches to which we may resort for handling the complex decision problems involving uncertainty and risk that climate change implies for forest managers. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more reliable information becomes available as time passes and climate changes. Aims: The paper (1) provides a broad overview of state-ofthe- art methods for optimal decision making under risk and uncertainty in forestry and (2) elaborates on the possible use of these methods in adaptive forest management under climate change. Method: A survey of the current literature is carried out to identify approaches and developments that may prove most promising in relation to different challenges to the adaptive management of forest ecosystems under climate change. Results: Most studies focusing on changing, typically increasing, risks in forest management under climate change tend to build on existing approaches about changes in risk levels contingent on climate change scenarios. Conclusion: Finally, we discuss what to emphasise in future studies to improve the understanding of adaptive forest management and decision support tools needed to cope with climate change. © 2011 INRA and Springer-Verlag, France.