Strategies for assimilating high-density atmospheric motion vectors into a regional tropical cyclone forecast model (HWRF)

15Citations
Citations of this article
7Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

Abstract

In recent years, atmospheric numerical modeling frameworks and satellite observing systems have both undergone significant advances. While these developments offer considerable potential for improving forecasts of high-impact weather events such as tropical cyclones (TC), much work remains to be done regarding the targeted processing and optimal use of observations now becoming available with high spatiotemporal resolution. Using the 2019 version of NCEP's HWRF model, we explore several different strategies for the assimilation of TC-scale, high-density atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from the new-generation GOES-R series of geostationary satellites. Using 2017's Atlantic Hurricane Irma as a case study, we examine the HWRF forecast impacts of observation pre-processing, including thinning and adjustments to observation errors. It is demonstrated that enhanced vortex-scale GOES-16 AMVs contribute to notable improvements in HWRF track forecast error compared to a baseline control experiment that does not incorporate the high-density AMVs. Impacts on TC intensity and structure (i.e., wind radii) forecast errors are less robust, but results from the optimization experiments suggest that further work (both with regard to data assimilation strategies and advancements in the methods themselves) should lead to improvements in these forecast variables as well.

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Lewis, W. E., Velden, C. S., & Stettner, D. (2020). Strategies for assimilating high-density atmospheric motion vectors into a regional tropical cyclone forecast model (HWRF). Atmosphere, 11(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/ATMOS11060673

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free