Socio-Spatial Disparities in Urban Green Space Resilience to Flooding: A 20-Year Analysis Across the Southeastern U.S

Abstract

While urban green spaces are integral to urban resilience, their long-term dynamics under recurrent flooding have received limited scholarly attention. This study investigates two decades of green space change across 367 counties in the southeastern United States, integrating FEMA disaster records with multi-period land cover data. Employing generalized additive and logistic regression models, the impacts of flood frequency, development intensity, and socioeconomic drivers were assessed. Flood frequency was identified as the primary determinant of urban green space loss. Each additional flood event corresponded to a 0.36% reduction in the five-year green space change rate (p < 0.01), while extreme flood frequency (≥ 10 events) was associated with an 18-fold increase in the odds of long-term degradation. Development intensity exhibited a significant non-linear effect, with loss rates culminating at moderate-to-high intensities. Furthermore, household income functioned as a significant moderator; in extremely flood-prone areas, higher income correlated with enhanced resilience (OR = 0.155, p < 0.05). These findings demonstrate that recurrent floods function as a cumulative pressure. This research highlights the necessity of equitable green infrastructure planning that integrates flood risk with the complex, moderating role of socioeconomic capacity.