A Behavioral Decision Model Based on Fuzzy Targets in Decision Making Using Weather Information

Abstract

Due to inevitable uncertainty in weather forecasts, many decision problems influenced by weather information have been formulated for decision making in uncertain situations. The fuzzy target-based decision making model we propose assumes that the decision maker assesses a fuzzy target expressing an aspiration, then selects the decision maximizing the possibility of attaining this target aspiration before making a decision. We then show that the decision maker’s different behavior about the aspiration leads to different decisions depending on the decision maker’s personal philosophy or experience. This behavioral analysis provides an interpretation for influencing psychological features of the decision maker in decision making and introduces an interesting link to attitudes towards risk by means of utility function.