Time series analysis of death of residents with malignant granules in Shenyang, China

Abstract

The aim of the study was to find out the association between air pollution and meteorological conditions with the death of residents living in Shenyang due to malignant tumors. Tumor related death data of residents of five urban districts in Shenyang were obtained from Shenyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily temperature, pressure, wind speed and humidity data of Shenyang from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from Shenyang Meteorological Bureau. Urban air pollution data were obtained from the Shenyang Environmental Monitoring Center Station, Shenyang Environmental Protection Bureau of China. All data were analyzed by the Poisson regression model. During the period from 2010 to 2015, the number of deaths among malignancies in Shenyang was 215,141,000, and the death rate of malignancies in Shenyang was increasing year by year from 2010 to 2015. Mortality rate is higher in men than in women, and mortality rate increased with aging and the highest mortality rate was observed in the 75-80 years age group. Average concentration of aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm particles, the aerodynamic diameter of <2.5 μm particles, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was 122.37, 74.75, 79.36, and 47.65 μg/m3, respectively. After control of confounding factors, it was observed that every 10 μg/m3increase of PM2.5 is followed by the 0.024% (95% confidence interval: 0.005% and 0.043%) increase of malignant tumor mortality rate. The results show that the increase of air pollution is related to the number of malignant tumors-related deaths in Shenyang, China, and season, sex and age are also influencing factors.