A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming

Abstract

Recently, multiple studies have reported declining phenological sensitivities (∆ days per ℃) with higher temperatures. Such observations have been used to suggest climate change is reshaping biological processes, with major implications for forecasts of future change. Here, we show that these results may simply be the outcome of using linear models to estimate nonlinear temperature responses, specifically for events that occur after a cumulative thermal threshold is met—a common model for many biological events. Corrections for the nonlinearity of temperature responses consistently remove the apparent decline. Our results show that rising temperatures combined with linear estimates based on calendar time produce the observations of declining sensitivity—without any shift in the underlying biology. Current methods may thus undermine efforts to identify when and how warming will reshape biological processes.