What is the Most Effective Intervention to Increase Job Retention for this Disabled Worker?

Abstract

In Disability Employment Services (DES), an emerging problem is recommending to disabled workers the right skill to upgrade and the right upgrade level to achieve a maximum increase in their job retention time. This problem involves causal reasoning to estimate the individual causal effect (ICE) on the survival outcome, i.e., job retention time, to determine the most effective intervention for a worker. Existing methods are not suitable to solve our problem. They are mostly developed for non-causal or non-survival challenges, while methods for causal survival analysis are under-explored. This paper proposes a representation learning method for recommending personalized interventions that can generate a maximum increase in job retention time for workers with disability. In our method, observed covariates are disentangled into latent variables based on which confounding and censoring biases are eliminated, and the ICE prediction model is built. Since true ICE values are not directly measurable in observational data, a reverse engineering technique is developed to estimate ICE for training samples. These estimated ICE values are then used as the pseudo ground truth to train the prediction model. Experiments with a case study of Australian workers with disability show that by adopting personalized interventions recommended by our method, disabled workers can increase their job retention time by up to 2.8 months. Additional evaluations with public datasets also show the technical strengths of our method in other applications.