Does recall time matter in verbal autopsies? Evidence from urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya [version 1; peer review: 2 approved with reservations]

Abstract

Background: To assign a cause of death to non-medically certified deaths, verbal autopsies (VAs) are widely used to determine the cause of death. The time difference between the death and the VA interview, also referred to as recall time, varies depending on social and operational factors surrounding the death. We investigated the effect of recall time on the assignment of causes of death by VA. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of 2002-2015 survey data of the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). The independent variable recall time was derived from the date of death and the date when the VA was conducted. Univariate and regression methods were used to calculate odds of death in defined categories of recall Results: There were 6218 deaths followed up between 2002 and 2016, out of which 5495 (88.3%) had VAs done. Recall time varied from 1-3001 days (mean 115.5 days, sd216.8). Majority of the VAs (45.7%) were conducted between 1-3 months after death. The effect of recall time varied for different diseases. Compared to VAs conducted between 1-3 months, there was a 24% higher likelihood of identifying HIV/AIDS as the cause of death for VAs conducted 4-6 months after death (AOR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.54; p-value = 0.043) and a 40% increased chance of identifying other infectious diseases as the cause of death for VAs conducted <1 month after death (AOR 1.4; 95% CI 1.02-1.92, p-value = 0.024).Conclusions: Recall time affected the assignment of VA cause of death for HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases and maternal/neonatal causes. Our analysis indicates that in the urban informal setting, VAs should be conducted from one month up to 6 months after the death probability of accurately assigning the cause of death.